How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Panetolikos and 1.0 from Asteras Tripolis, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.0 goals between the two (xG 1.1-1.0), landing about 66% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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