How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Ferencváros to win 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Ferencváros and 0.9 from Újpest, so Ferencváros come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Ferencváros to win. Ferencváros are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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