What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Zalaegerszeg and 1.3 from Puskás FC Academy, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Puskás FC Academy to win. Puskás FC Academy shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Zalaegerszeg a draw or better. We make it about 39% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
