How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Paksi SE to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Paksi SE and 1.4 from Debrecen, so Paksi SE come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Paksi SE to win. Paksi SE are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.4), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.98, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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