What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from FH Hafnarfjörður and 1.4 from KA Akureyri, so FH Hafnarfjörður come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FH Hafnarfjörður to win. FH Hafnarfjörður are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.4), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓KA Akureyri have won one of their last five.
