FH Hafnarfjörður v KA Akureyri: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FH Hafnarfjörður to win 46%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from FH Hafnarfjörður and 1.4 from KA Akureyri, so FH Hafnarfjörður come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

KA Akureyri come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: FH Hafnarfjörður to win. FH Hafnarfjörður are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.4), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.