What to expect
We expect about 2.7 goals from Víkingur Reykjavík and 0.9 from Keflavík, so Víkingur Reykjavík come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Víkingur Reykjavík come into this on two straight draws. Keflavík come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Víkingur Reykjavík to win. Víkingur Reykjavík are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.9), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
