How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Fram Reykjavík to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Fram Reykjavík and 1.7 from Breiðablik, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Fram Reykjavík come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fram Reykjavík to win. Fram Reykjavík are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.7), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fram Reykjavík have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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