How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Víkingur Reykjavík to win 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.9 goals from Víkingur Reykjavík and 1.1 from Fram Reykjavík, so Víkingur Reykjavík come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Fram Reykjavík come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Víkingur Reykjavík to win. Víkingur Reykjavík are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.9-1.1), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Víkingur Reykjavík have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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