Andorra v Malta prediction

What to expect

Andorra host Malta in a UEFA Nations League clash on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit near the bottom of their group, each fighting to avoid the last-place slot that would see them drop further. The table is tight, and a single point could make the difference between staying level and slipping behind. Neither side has a big goal-difference advantage, so the match is likely to be decided by a narrow margin.

Andorra have been struggling for a while. In their last eight games they have managed only one win, a 5-1 victory over Ceuta at home, and have lost the other seven. Their recent league of defeats includes a 3-1 loss to Sporting Gijón at home, another 3-1 loss to Sociedad B at home, a 1-0 defeat away to Valladolid, a 1-0 loss at home to Eibar and a 4-2 loss away to Celta B. In those eight matches they have scored nine goals and let in sixteen. They have failed to find the net in four of those games and have been involved in four matches with three or more goals, with both sides scoring in half of those high-scoring encounters.

Malta’s form is a little better, though still uneven. Their most recent result was a 2-1 win away at Gibraltar, a game in which they showed they can grind out a narrow victory. Before that they suffered a 3-0 defeat to Celtic and a 4-1 loss to Kilmarnock, so they have also been on the wrong end of heavy defeats. Overall Malta have been able to score in most of their recent fixtures, and the 2-1 win demonstrates they can take their chances when they come.

When the two sides have met before the games have been tight and low-scoring. The expected total of 1.7 goals and the similar chances of each team scoring – 58 % for Andorra and 61 % for Malta – point to a match where one goal could decide everything. Both teams have shown they can keep the scoreline low, and the recent data suggests another close encounter rather than a goal-fest.

We back Malta or a draw. The price of 1.30 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so taking the wider safety net gives us a better chance of staying in the result. Our chance of this pick working is about 70 %. For it to go wrong, Andorra would need to win outright, which would require them to break a run of five straight defeats and find the net more than once – something that has not happened often in recent weeks. If Malta can keep a clean sheet or at least snatch a point, the bet should pay off.