Andorra v Malta: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Malta or Draw 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Andorra host Malta in a UEFA Nations League meeting on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit in the lower half of their group and a point will keep them alive in the competition. The two sides are evenly matched on the numbers we have – the expected total goals is just 1.7 and the chances of either side scoring are almost the same. It looks like a tight, low-scoring affair where a single goal could decide everything.

Andorra come into this game on a very poor run. In their last eight matches they have won only once and lost seven times. The most recent result was a 3-1 defeat to Sporting Gijón at home, before that a 3-1 loss to Sociedad B on their own turf. They then travelled to Valladolid and fell 1-0, followed by a 1-0 loss to Eibar at home and a 4-2 defeat away at Celta B. The only bright spot was a 5-1 victory over Ceuta at home, but that was five games ago. In those eight games Andorra have scored nine goals and let in sixteen. They have failed to find the net in four matches and in half of the games there have been three or more goals, with both sides scoring in four of them. Their last five home games contain one win and four losses, showing they have struggled to turn their home advantage into points.

Our pick is Malta or a draw. The price of 1.29 is shorter than what we think the game will be, so backing Malta or the draw gives us a wider safety net. The chance of this outcome happening sits at 70 out of 100 in our view. The numbers suggest a low-scoring game and both teams have similar odds of scoring at least once. For our pick to go wrong Malta would have to lose by more than one goal, which seems unlikely given Andorra’s recent defensive record and the overall tight nature of the fixture. The price looks good and the risk feels limited, making this a sensible way to back the lean without needing to pick an exact score.