How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made New Zealand or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Palestine host New Zealand in a friendly on 24 September. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads rather than chase points, but the result still tells us something about where each side sits. Palestine have been trying to prove they can compete against higher-rated opponents, while New Zealand come in as the statistical favourite. The numbers suggest New Zealand will score more, but both sides have a good chance to find the net, so a draw is also on the cards.
Palestine’s recent form has been mixed. They beat a regional side 2-1, then suffered a 3-0 loss to a strong European team. After that they drew 1-1 with a mid-table side and followed it with a 4-1 defeat to a club from a neighbouring league. In five games they have scored seven goals and let in eight. The run shows they can create chances but also that they concede heavily when the opposition presses.
New Zealand have been more consistent in their last outings. They opened with a comfortable 3-0 win over a lower-ranked nation, then held a fellow Asian side to a 0-0 stalemate. Their next match was a 2-1 victory against a South American opponent, and most recently they edged a 2-2 draw with a European team, coming from behind to earn a point. In those four games they have scored seven times and allowed three, indicating a solid attack backed by a relatively tight defence.
When the two have met before, the games have tended to be open, with both sides getting on the scoresheet. Given the friendly setting and the fact that both coaches will be rotating players, we expect a similar pattern this time – chances at both ends and a likely finish with goals from each team. The statistical outlook points to a total of around two to three goals, which fits the recent history between them.
We back New Zealand or a draw. The price of 1.24 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a little extra safety. New Zealand are the stronger side on the numbers, but Palestine have a solid chance to score, so a draw is a realistic fallback. The pick looks good because it covers the most likely outcomes without needing the exact score. It would go wrong if Palestine manage to keep a clean sheet and win, or if New Zealand fail to score at all, but those scenarios feel less likely.
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