How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Azerbaijan to win 81%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Azerbaijan and 0.5 from Liechtenstein, so Azerbaijan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Liechtenstein come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Azerbaijan to win. Azerbaijan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.5), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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