What to expect
Panama host New Zealand in a friendly on 1 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads rather than chase points, but the numbers still give us a clue about who is likely to have the edge. Panama sit higher on the goal-scoring chart with an average of 1.8 goals per game compared with New Zealand’s 1.5. That makes Panama the stronger side on paper, yet the figures also suggest an open contest with chances for both teams. A win for Panama would keep them looking solid ahead of future fixtures, while New Zealand will be hoping to prove they can match the higher-rated side.
Panama have been busy of late. In their most recent outings they beat a regional opponent 2-0, then followed that with a 3-1 victory over another side, and most recently they drew 1-1 against a team from the same confederation. Those three results give them five goals scored and two conceded in the last three games, a run that shows they can find the net regularly while keeping the defence reasonably tight.
New Zealand’s recent form tells a similar story. They opened with a 2-2 draw against a neighbouring nation, then secured a 1-0 win over a lower-ranked side, and most recently they suffered a 0-0 stalemate against a team that travelled from a different continent. Across those three fixtures they have scored three goals and let in two, indicating a balanced approach but also a slight dip in attacking output compared with Panama.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be fairly even affairs, with both teams managing to create scoring opportunities. Given the friendly nature of this meeting and the fact that coaches are likely to rotate players, we expect a match that mirrors the statistical picture: both teams will push forward, and there will be chances at each end. The goal averages of 1.8 for Panama and 1.5 for New Zealand point to a game that could see a couple of goals from either side, rather than a defensive slog.
Our pick is Panama or a draw. The price of 1.35 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so we back the lean with a safety net that also covers a stalemate. The chance of this selection working is about 70 out of 100, which we think is a solid return for the risk. For the pick to go wrong, Panama would have to lose outright, which would require New Zealand to out-score them by at least one goal. If the match stays tight or Panama manage a single goal, our selection should hold.
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