Panama v New Zealand prediction

What to expect

Panama host New Zealand in an international friendly on 1 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to test players, so the result will not affect any qualification race. The numbers we have suggest Panama are a touch stronger, with an expected 1.8 goals compared with New Zealand’s 1.5. That points to an open game with chances at both ends. Both sides have a high probability of finding the net – 83 % for Panama and 78 % for the Kiwis – and each can score more than once, though Panama’s chance of two or more goals (51 %) is a little higher than New Zealand’s (43 %).

We back Panama or the draw at 1.40. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. It gives us a safety net – if Panama win it pays, and if the match ends level we are still covered. We think the odds are good for this outcome and we see a 70 % chance of it landing. The only way it could go wrong is if both teams struggle to create any clear chances and the game ends goalless, or if New Zealand manages to pull ahead by more than one goal. In those cases the pick would not succeed.