How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Belarus to win 94%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.6 goals from Belarus and 0.5 from San Marino, so Belarus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
San Marino come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Belarus to win. Belarus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.6-0.5), and we make them about 95% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 94 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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