Colombia v Paraguay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Colombia to win 65%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Colombia host Paraguay in a friendly on 3 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to give their coaches a chance to try out different players, so the result will not affect any qualification race. Still, the numbers show a clear gap. Colombia are expected to score about 1.7 goals while Paraguay average just 0.6. The chance that Colombia will find the net at all is 85 per cent, and they have a 55 per cent chance of scoring twice or more. Paraguay’s odds of scoring are only 41 per cent, with just a 10 per cent chance of getting two goals. In simple terms, Colombia look the stronger side on paper and will go into the game as the clear favourites.

Our pick is Colombia to win. The price on offer is 1.75, which is longer than what we think the game is worth. We see Colombia winning about 67 per cent of the time, and we give the result a 65 per cent chance of happening. The numbers behind the pick are clean – Colombia’s goal expectation is almost three times that of Paraguay, and they are far more likely to score at least once. Taking them to finish on top looks the safer play compared with chasing a bigger price elsewhere. For the pick to go wrong, Paraguay would need to break through a defence that has let in goals far more often than they have scored, and they would have to do it more than once, something the statistics say is unlikely. If the game stays close and ends 1-0 or 2-1 to Colombia, the price still looks good for the risk taken.