Belgium v Turkey: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Belgium to win 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Belgium host Turkey in a UEFA Nations League clash on 2 October 2026. Both teams are sitting in the middle of the table, each looking to pull away from the pack. The points on offer could move one side into the top half while the other tries to avoid slipping lower. On paper Belgium are the stronger side. Their goal average sits at about 2.5 per game compared with Turkey’s 1.1. That gap suggests an open match with chances for both sides, but Belgium are clearly favoured to do the damage.

We think Belgium will win. The numbers give them a 93 % chance to find the net at all and a 72 % chance to score twice or more. Turkey still have a 65 % chance to score and a 28 % chance to hit a double, so a goal for them is possible. Our chance that Belgium come out on top is 69 %, and the price of 1.53 is longer than our own reading of the game. In short, Belgium look the cleaner pick. The price looks good and the risk of a surprise is low – they would have to be shut out completely for us to be wrong.