Bosnia and Herzegovina v Sweden: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Sweden or Draw 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Bosnia and Herzegovina host Sweden in a UEFA Nations League clash on 2 October 2026. The game is being played on Bosnian soil, with the home side looking to prove they can match a side that is statistically the stronger of the two. Our numbers give Sweden an expected 1.7 goals to Bosnia’s 1.3, suggesting a fairly even contest but with a slight edge to the visitors. Both teams have a high chance of finding the net – 71 % for Bosnia and 81 % for Sweden – and there is a good probability of multiple goals, 35 % that Bosnia will score twice or more and 50 % that Sweden will do the same. In short, the match is likely to be open, with chances at both ends and no clear defensive wall in sight.

Our pick is Sweden or a draw. The price on offer is 1.46, which is longer than what we feel the game deserves, making it a tempting option. By backing Sweden or the draw we cover the most likely outcomes without having to pick a single result, giving us a safety net if the game ends level. We think the chance of this selection succeeding sits at about 73 % – a solid probability for a price that looks good to us. For the pick to go wrong, Bosnia would need to hold out for a win, which would require them to outscore Sweden despite the statistical edge the Swedes have. If the visitors manage only a single goal or the match finishes level, our selection will still pay.