What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Russia and 0.5 from Namibia, so Russia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Russia to win. Russia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.5), and we make them about 86% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
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