Costa Rica v Haiti prediction

What to expect

Costa Rica host Haiti in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 5 October. The home side sit fourth out of six with three points from three games and a goal difference of zero. One place above them, the Dominican Republic sit on six points, while Trinidad and Tobago trail by three points. Haiti sit second, also on three games but with nine points and a +6 goal difference. A win for Costa Rica could lift them to third and keep the gap to the leaders narrow, while Haiti look to cement a top-two finish and pull clear of the chasing pack.

Costa Rica have played three games in their last stretch, winning 3-0 away at Nicaragua, then losing 2-0 away to Haiti and 4-3 at home to Curaçao. In those three matches they have scored six and let in six. They kept one clean sheet against Nicaragua but failed to find the net against Haiti. Two of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in the Curaçao game. The team is coming in on a short three-day turnaround after that high-scoring loss.

Haiti arrive on the back of three straight victories. They beat the Dominican Republic 4-1 away, then defeated Costa Rica 2-0 at home and most recently edged Trinidad and Tobago 3-2 at home. Over those three games Haiti have scored nine and conceded three, keeping one clean sheet. Both the win over the Dominican Republic and the win over Trinidad and Tobago featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in each of those matches. Like Costa Rica, Haiti also had only three days between matches, so fatigue could be a factor for both.

Our pick is Costa Rica or a draw at odds of 1.33. The price is shorter than what we feel the game warrants, so the double-chance gives us a wider safety net. The numbers suggest an open game: Costa Rica are expected to score at least once 84 % of the time and twice or more 54 % of the time, while Haiti are expected to score at least once 76 % of the time and twice or more 42 % of the time. We see a 72 % chance that either the hosts hold on for a point or manage a win. For the pick to go wrong, Haiti would need to win outright, which would require them to improve on their recent defensive record and score at least two goals while keeping a clean sheet. If the match stays tight and both sides find the net, the double-chance should still cover us.

Recent meetings