How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. We made England or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Croatia and 1.6 from England, so England come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: England or Draw. This covers England or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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