Cuba v Grenada prediction

What to expect

Cuba host Grenada in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 16 November 2026. Cuba sit top of their group with 11 points from five games and a healthy +11 goal difference. They are one place above St Kitts and Nevis, who trail by three points. Grenada sit third, holding six points and a –7 goal difference, two points clear of Bonaire below them. Both sides have a chance to move up the table, but Cuba are the clear leaders and will be looking to keep their perfect record intact.

Cuba come into this game unbeaten in their last five outings. Their run includes a 7-1 win away at Bonaire, a 2-2 draw at home with St Kitts and Nevis, a 3-3 draw away to the same opponents, a 2-0 home victory over Bonaire and a 3-0 away win against Grenada. In those five matches they have scored 17 goals while conceding only six, keeping two clean sheets. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in three of those encounters. The only thing missing from that run is a loss, and it shows a side that can both attack and defend when needed. Cuba played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround but the momentum is theirs.

Grenada have had a tougher time in their last five games. They have recorded two wins – a 3-2 home success over St Kitts and Nevis and a 3-2 away win at Bonaire – but have also suffered three defeats. Those losses came 4-1 at home to Bonaire, 3-0 away to St Kitts and Nevis and a 3-0 home defeat by Cuba. Across the five matches Grenada have scored seven goals and let in 14, and they have failed to find the net in two of those games. Their most recent outing was the 3-0 loss to Cuba on home soil, a result that highlighted their defensive frailties while also showing that they can be kept quiet by a strong opponent. Grenada played three days ago, so they too are on a short rest.

The two teams have met recently, with Cuba’s 3-0 victory over Grenada away being the most recent encounter. That match was a clean sheet for Cuba and a three-goal win, suggesting that when the stronger side is on form they can dominate the game. Given Cuba’s higher scoring rate and Grenada’s recent defensive lapses, we expect another open contest with chances at both ends, but with Cuba likely to control the tempo.

Our pick is a Cuba win. The numbers put Cuba at about 2.3 goals per game versus Grenada’s 1.0, and we see a 74 % chance of that outcome. The price of 1.28 is shorter than our own reading, meaning it does not offer much extra reward, but the risk is low. For the result to go wrong, Grenada would need to score twice and keep Cuba to a single goal, something that has only happened in 20 % of their games. As long as Cuba keep their usual scoring touch and stay solid at the back, the pick looks sound.