What to expect
We expect about 3.9 goals from Finland and 0.4 from San Marino, so Finland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Finland to win. Finland are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.9-0.4), and we make them about 97% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 96 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.03, which works out at about 97 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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