How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Cyprus or Draw 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Cyprus and 1.3 from Armenia, so Cyprus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cyprus or Draw. This covers Cyprus or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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