How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made DR Congo to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
DR Congo host Equatorial Guinea in an AFCON qualifier at home. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the numbers show a clear gap. DR Congo are expected to score about 1.7 goals while the visitors average only 0.5. That makes the match a low-scoring affair and puts the home side in a strong position. The stakes are simple: a win will push DR Congo higher up the standings, while a draw or loss could see Equatorial Guinea slip further behind.
We back DR Congo to win. The price of 1.31 is shorter than our own reading, which puts DR Congo at roughly a 70 % chance of coming out on top. The odds of them scoring at all are high – 83 % – and they have a solid 50 % chance of getting two or more goals. By contrast, Equatorial Guinea only have a 35 % chance to score and just 7 % to hit the net twice. With those figures, taking DR Congo to win looks the cleaner play. The price looks good for a side that should dominate the game, and the only way it could go wrong is if the visitors manage to find a goal and hold on for a draw.
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