What to expect
DR Congo host Equatorial Guinea in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams are fighting for points that could decide who stays in the race for the final tournament spots. DR Congo sit higher in the table, while Equatorial Guinea are lower and need a result to keep their hopes alive. The numbers we have show DR Congo as the clear favourite. They are expected to score about 1.7 goals per game, compared with just 0.5 for the visitors. That gap makes the match look like a tight, low-scoring affair, but it also means the home side have the edge in the battle for three points.
Our pick is DR Congo to win. The price on offer is 1.54, which is longer than what we think the game is worth. We see DR Congo scoring at least once in 83 % of their games and finding the net twice or more in half of them. By contrast, Equatorial Guinea only score at all in 35 % of their outings and manage two goals in just 7 % of matches. Putting those chances together gives us a roughly 68 % chance that DR Congo will finish on top. The price looks good for a side that is stronger on the numbers and has a solid chance of scoring. For the pick to go wrong, the visitors would need to surprise us by finding the net and then holding on, or DR Congo would have to fail to score at all, something that happens in only 17 % of their games. All things considered, backing DR Congo to win feels like the cleaner play.
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