What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from England and 0.9 from Croatia, so England come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
England come into this on three straight wins. Croatia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: England to win. England are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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