What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Italy and 1.6 from France, so France come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: France or Draw. This covers France or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Italy have won two of their last four.
✓France are unbeaten in their last four — three wins and one draw.
Recent results
2 Oct 2026France 1 - 1 Italy
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