How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Spain or Draw 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from England and 1.4 from Spain, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Spain or Draw. This covers Spain or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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