What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Eritrea and 1.8 from Guinea, so Guinea come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guinea or Draw. This covers Guinea or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
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