Estonia v Bulgaria prediction

What to expect

Estonia host Bulgaria in a UEFA Nations League clash on 16 November 2026. In the four-team group Estonia sit second with nine points and a +2 goal difference, just two points ahead of Iceland and five ahead of Bulgaria. Bulgaria are third with four points and a –7 goal difference, five points clear of bottom-placed Luxembourg. Both sides are only a few points from the euro-qualifying places, so a win or a draw could keep Estonia in the hunt while a loss would push Bulgaria further down the table.

Estonia have not lost in their last five matches. They beat Luxembourg 1-0 away, then drew 0-0 with Iceland at home, beat Luxembourg again 1-0 at home, drew 0-0 with Bulgaria away and drew 1-1 with Iceland away. In those five games they have scored three goals and let in just one. Four of the five matches ended with a clean sheet for Estonia and they failed to find the net in two games. No game in that run produced three or more goals, and both sides scored only once in the 1-1 draw with Iceland.

Bulgaria’s recent form is less encouraging. Their last five fixtures include a 5-0 loss to Iceland at home, a 2-0 win over Luxembourg away, a 3-0 defeat to Iceland away, a 0-0 draw with Estonia at home and a 2-1 loss to Luxembourg at home. Across those games Bulgaria have scored three goals while conceding ten. They kept two clean sheets but failed to score in three matches. Three of the five games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in the 2-1 loss to Luxembourg. Like Estonia, Bulgaria are playing again after only three days of rest.

The two teams met earlier in the campaign when Estonia held Bulgaria to a 0-0 draw at home. That result showed both sides capable of tight, low-scoring affairs. Given Estonia’s strong defence – four clean sheets in five games – and Bulgaria’s tendency to leak goals, we expect another modest affair. The expected total of 2.3 goals and the similar chances of each side scoring (71 % for Estonia, 66 % for Bulgaria) point to a game where a single goal could decide the outcome.

We back Estonia or a draw at odds of 1.27. The price is shorter than our own reading, so it gives us a safety net while still favouring the home side. Estonia’s unbeaten run, superior goal difference and home advantage make them the more likely side to avoid defeat. For our pick to fail, Bulgaria would need to score twice and keep a clean sheet, or win outright, which looks unlikely given their recent defensive frailties. The price looks good and we feel comfortable with a 70 % chance of our selection being right.