How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made France to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
France host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on 2 October 2026. Both teams are in the middle of the table, but the numbers show France as the clear favourite. A win for France would push them a few points ahead of the pack, while Italy would need a result to stay in the hunt. The expected goal figures – 2.2 for France and 1.0 for Italy – suggest an open game with chances for both sides. France are likely to find the net, with a 90 % chance of scoring at least one and a 65 % chance of hitting two or more. Italy have a 62 % chance of scoring and only a 25 % chance of getting two goals.
Our pick is France to win. The price of 1.46 is shorter than we think the game is worth, but France’s superiority on the numbers – about 2.2 goals to Italy’s 1.0 – gives them roughly a 66 % chance of victory. We see a 64 % chance that this prediction will be right. The price looks good for a side that should dominate. It would only go wrong if Italy manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, forcing a tight finish, or if France fail to convert the many chances they are expected to create. Otherwise, backing France looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
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