What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Germany and 1.5 from Netherlands, so Germany come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Germany or Draw. This covers Germany or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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