What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Gibraltar and 1.4 from Malta, so Malta come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Malta or Draw. This covers Malta or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.11, which works out at about 90 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Gibraltar have won one of their last five.
✓Malta are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
Recent results
1 Oct 2026Malta 1 - 1 Gibraltar
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