Guadeloupe v Bermuda prediction

What to expect

Guadeloupe host Bermuda in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 16 November 2026. In the group Guadeloupe sit third out of four with seven points from five games and a goal difference of zero. They are just one place above Bermuda, who sit bottom with no points and a –9 goal difference. Barbados sit a place above Guadeloupe and are three points clear, so a win for the home side would lift them to second place and keep them out of the relegation zone. The numbers show Guadeloupe averaging 2.6 goals per game while Bermuda manage only 1.3, so the match is expected to have chances at both ends.

Guadeloupe’s recent form has been mixed. In their last five outings they have won two, drawn one and lost two. The most recent result was a 3-0 away win over Barbados. Before that they fell 1-0 at home to Saint Lucia, then suffered a 3-0 defeat to the same opponents away. They managed a 2-2 draw with Barbados at home and earlier in the run beat Bermuda 2-1 away. Across those five games Guadeloupe have scored seven and let in seven. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in two matches. Four of the five fixtures featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them. The team played just four days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround.

Bermuda’s run has been far less encouraging. They have lost all five of their recent games, conceding fifteen goals while scoring six. Their latest defeat was a 2-1 loss at home to Saint Lucia. Prior to that they lost 2-1 at home to Barbados, then went down 4-1 away to the same opponents. Before that they suffered a 5-2 defeat away to Saint Lucia and earlier in the sequence were beaten 2-1 at home by Guadeloupe. Every one of those five matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in each. Bermuda played only three days ago, meaning they also have a short recovery period.

The two sides have met before, with Guadeloupe’s most recent encounter ending in a 2-1 win for the home team. That game featured both sides on the scoresheet, a pattern that has repeated in all of Bermuda’s last five matches. Given Guadeloupe’s higher scoring average and the fact that both teams tend to produce three-goal games, we can expect an open contest with chances for both. Guadeloupe will likely look to impose themselves early, while Bermuda will try to stay in it by finding a goal and hoping for a mistake.

We pick Guadeloupe to win. The price of 1.27 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the odds still give a decent return for a side that scores more than twice as often as their opponents. Our confidence in the result is about 70 %. For the pick to go wrong, Bermuda would need to find a way to score twice, something they have only done in about a third of their games, and Guadeloupe would have to be shut out, an outcome that has happened twice in five matches. If either of those unlikely things happens, the result could be different, but the balance of evidence points to a Guadeloupe victory.