What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guinea-Bissau and 1.2 from Madagascar, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guinea-Bissau or Draw. This covers Guinea-Bissau or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
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