How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Ivory Coast to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ivory Coast host Ghana in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. The two West African nations sit near the top of their group, each hoping to cement a place in the final tournament. A win for the home side would push them clear of the second spot, while Ghana would need a result to stay in contention. On paper Ivory Coast look the stronger outfit. Our own numbers give them an average of 1.6 goals per game compared with just 0.7 for Ghana. The chance that Ivory Coast will find the net at all sits at 81 %, while Ghana’s odds of scoring are only 47 %. When it comes to scoring more than once, Ivory Coast have a 47 % chance and Ghana just 13 %. In short, the home side have the clear statistical edge and the match could decide which team moves ahead in the qualification race.
We think Ivory Coast will win. The price of 1.64 matches our reading of the game and offers a sensible return for a side that is about 61 % likely to come out on top. The expected total of 2.3 goals suggests a modest scoring game, with Ivory Coast likely to get the only goal or perhaps add a second. If Ghana manage to break through early they could make it uncomfortable, but the odds of them scoring twice are low. For our pick to go wrong, Ghana would need to score first and then hold on, or pull off a surprise two-goal burst – both scenarios are unlikely given the numbers. All things considered, backing Ivory Coast to win looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
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