What to expect
Ivory Coast host Ghana in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the table shows Ivory Coast a step ahead of the visitors. The stakes are simple: a win puts the home side in a stronger spot to qualify, while Ghana needs points to stay in the race. On paper Ivory Coast are the stronger side, with an expected 1.6 goals compared with Ghana’s 0.7. The numbers also give Ivory Coast an 81 % chance of scoring at least once and a 47 % chance of finding the net twice, while Ghana’s chances sit at 47 % for a single goal and only 13 % for two or more.
We pick Ivory Coast to win. The price of 1.69 matches our own view of the game. Our own assessment puts Ivory Coast’s chance of coming out on top at about 61 %, which lines up with the price offered. With Ivory Coast expected to score more than twice as often as Ghana and the odds of them scoring at all being well above 80 %, the safer route is to back the hosts. For this to go wrong, Ghana would need to score first and then hold on, or the home side would have to be shut out completely – both scenarios are unlikely given the low probability of Ghana scoring twice or more. In that light, taking Ivory Coast to win looks the cleaner play.
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