What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Japan and 0.7 from Paraguay, so Japan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Japan come into this on four straight wins. Paraguay come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Japan to win. Japan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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