How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kosovo or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Kosovo host the Republic of Ireland at home in this UEFA Nations League clash on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of the table, each looking to climb a few places before the final round. A win for Kosovo would push them a step closer to the top half, while Ireland needs the points to stay clear of the relegation zone. On paper Kosovo are the stronger side – they are expected to score more often and have a higher chance of finding the net twice in a game.
Kosovo have been on a decent run lately. They beat Latvia 2-0, then edged out Austria 1-0, and followed that with a 3-1 victory over Finland. That string of three wins gives them six points and a total of six goals scored while conceding just one. The run shows they can keep clean sheets and still find the net, building confidence ahead of the Ireland test.
Ireland’s recent form has been mixed. They started with a 2-2 draw against Wales, then suffered a 3-0 loss to Celtic, and most recently fell 4-1 to Kilmarnock. The Kilmarnock game was a heavy defeat, with Ireland only managing a single goal while conceding four. That result highlights their defensive frailties but also shows they can still get on the scoresheet even when outplayed.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be close, with both teams capable of scoring. Given Kosovo’s higher expected goal tally and the fact they have been scoring regularly, this encounter is likely to be a low-scoring affair with Kosovo holding a slight edge. We expect a tight contest, perhaps a single goal deciding the outcome, but there is still a chance Ireland will find the net.
Our pick is Kosovo or a draw at odds of 1.37. The price matches our reading of the game – Kosovo are the better side but a draw is possible, especially if Ireland tighten up after their recent defensive lapses. The price looks good for the risk we are taking. For the pick to go wrong, Kosovo would have to be shut out completely and Ireland would need to score at least once, turning a narrow win into a loss. If that happens, the bet would fail, but the odds make the combined Kosovo-draw option worth backing.
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