Latvia v Montenegro: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Montenegro or Draw 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Latvia host Montenegro on 2 October in a UEFA Nations League clash. Both teams sit in the same group and are looking to climb the table, but we have no exact positions to quote. The match is a chance for each side to prove themselves against a neighbour from the Balkans. On paper Montenegro are the stronger side – the expected goal tally is 1.2 for them against 1.0 for Latvia, and the overall expectation is just over two goals in the game. Latvia have a 64 % chance of finding the net at least once, while Montenegro’s chance of scoring is a little higher at 72 %. Both sides are likely to score, but Montenegro have a better chance of doing it twice – 34 % compared with Latvia’s 26 %. The stakes are simple: three points for a win, one for a draw, none for a loss, and both will be hoping to finish the round on a high note.

Our pick is Montenegro or a draw. The price on offer is 1.21, which is shorter than what we think the game will produce, so it gives us a little extra safety. Backing Montenegro or the draw covers the most likely outcomes – a narrow win for the visitors or a stalemate. The price looks good because it rewards the lean on Montenegro without demanding a precise scoreline. For this selection to fail we would need Latvia to win outright, which is the least likely of the three possibilities. If the game ends with Montenegro winning by a single goal or both sides sharing the points, the bet should pay out. We feel confident about this approach, and the 72 % chance we assign to it landing matches the odds nicely.