What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Liberia and 1.5 from Cape Verde, so Cape Verde come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cape Verde or Draw. This covers Cape Verde or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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