How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Libya to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Libya host Botswana in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the numbers show Libya as the clear favourite. They are expected to score about one and a half goals, while Botswana average less than one. The chance of Libya finding the net at all is high – 81 per cent – and they have a solid chance of scoring twice or more. Botswana’s odds of scoring are lower, just under half, and they rarely hit the net twice. The price of 1.67 for a Libya win matches our own view of the match.
Libya have been busy lately. They beat Team A 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Team B, and followed that with a 3-1 win over Team C. Those three games give them six goals scored and two conceded. The run shows a side that can both create and keep clean sheets. Their recent form suggests they are comfortable in front of goal and can hold onto a lead.
Botswana’s recent fixtures have been tougher. They lost 3-0 to Celtic and then fell 4-1 to Kilmarnock. In their latest outing they managed a 2-2 draw with Team D, fighting back from a goal down before conceding late. That match gave them three goals scored and three let in over the last four games. The draw shows they can score, but they also tend to give away chances.
When the two sides meet, the numbers point to a game with few goals from Botswana and a decent chance of Libya scoring at least once. We expect Libya to control the tempo and look for the opening goal early. Botswana will try to stay compact and hope to catch a counter-attack, but their recent record suggests they will struggle to create many chances. The match is likely to be decided by Libya’s ability to break down a disciplined defence.
Our pick is Libya to win. The price of 1.67 sits close to our own reading of the game. Libya are the stronger side on the numbers, with about 1.5 goals expected compared with Botswana’s 0.7. We see them winning about 61 per cent of the time, and the price offers a clean play. For this to go wrong, Libya would have to fail to score at all – a 19 per cent chance – and Botswana would need to find a goal, which only happens in about half of their games. If both those low-probability events occur, the result could be a surprise, but the odds make a Libya win the safer choice.
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