How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Lithuania to win 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Liechtenstein host Lithuania in a UEFA Nations League clash on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, each looking to pull ahead of the pack. A win for Liechtenstein would lift them a spot and keep their hopes of moving up alive, while Lithuania need the three points to cement themselves as the group’s stronger side and push towards a promotion place. The numbers tell us the balance is clear: Lithuania are expected to score about 1.4 goals, Liechtenstein only 0.6. That suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter, with the visitors having a clear edge. The stakes are simple – three points could mean the difference between a chance at promotion or staying put, and both sides will be keen to grab them.
We think Lithuania will come out on top. The chance they score at all sits at 76 %, and they have a 40 % chance of finding the net twice. Liechtenstein’s odds of scoring are much lower – 42 % for any goal and just 10 % for two or more. Our own view puts Lithuania’s chance of winning at 57 %, which is a little higher than the 59 % we give them in the short note. The price on offer, 1.33, is shorter than our reading of the game, meaning it does not fully reflect the advantage we see in the numbers. Backing Lithuania outright is the straightforward way to go. For this to go wrong, Liechtenstein would need to defy the odds and score, then keep a clean sheet while Lithuania fail to find the net – a scenario that the data says is unlikely. In short, the numbers point to a low-scoring win for Lithuania, and the price looks good for that outcome.
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