Lithuania v Liechtenstein prediction

What to expect

Lithuania host Liechtenstein in a UEFA Nations League clash on 16 November 2026. Lithuania sit second in the three-team group with four points and a +1 goal difference, while Liechtenstein are bottom with a single point and –3. Azerbaijan sit just above Lithuania, four points clear, and Liechtenstein are three points behind their rivals. A win for Lithuania would keep them a point off the top spot, whereas a loss would see them drop to third. The stakes are simple: Lithuania want to stay in the chase, Liechtenstein need a point to avoid a clean sweep.

Lithuania’s recent form shows a mixed but decent run. In their last five matches they have won two, drawn two and lost one. The most recent result was a 0-0 draw with Suriname at home, followed by a 1-0 defeat away to Azerbaijan. Before that they beat Andorra 3-0 at home, then drew 1-1 with Azerbaijan at home, and earlier in the cycle they won 2-0 away at Liechtenstein. Over those five games they have scored six goals and let in only two, keeping three clean sheets. They have only failed to score in two matches and have had just one game with three or more goals.

Liechtenstein have struggled to find any rhythm. Their last five outings consist of four defeats and a single draw. Most recently they lost 1-0 at home to Azerbaijan, and three days earlier they fell 2-0 at home to Gibraltar. Prior to that they drew 0-0 away to Azerbaijan, then suffered 2-0 away defeats to Malta and to Lithuania at home. In this stretch they have scored no goals while conceding seven, keeping only one clean sheet. They have failed to find the net in every game and have not been involved in a high-scoring match.

When the two sides met earlier in the competition, Lithuania won 2-0 away. That result gave Lithuania a clear edge and suggests a similar pattern could repeat. Lithuania have shown they can score and defend well, while Liechtenstein have not managed a single goal in their recent five games. Expect a low-scoring affair, with Lithuania likely to find the net and Liechtenstein struggling to create chances.

We back Lithuania to win. The numbers give Lithuania about 1.9 goals on average compared with 0.4 for Liechtenstein, and we see a roughly 80 % chance of a Lithuanian victory. The price of 1.14 is shorter than our view, so it offers little extra reward, but the risk is low. For the pick to fail, Lithuania would have to be shut out and Liechtenstein somehow score, which has only happened in 4 % of their games. That scenario looks unlikely, making the win the safer choice.