Mauritania v Central African Republic: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Mauritania or Draw 83%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Mauritania host the Central African Republic in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the table tells a clear story. Mauritania sit higher than their visitors and the numbers we have suggest they are the stronger side. They are expected to find the net in most of their games, with an 81 per cent chance of scoring at least once and a 46 per cent chance of hitting two or more goals. The Central African Republic are less likely to score, with a 58 per cent chance of finding the net and only a 20 per cent chance of scoring twice. The expected total for the match is just under two and a half goals, with Mauritania projected to average 1.5 and the Central African Republic 0.9. In other words, the home side have the edge and a win would push them further up the table, while a draw would keep the visitors in the hunt but leave Mauritania still ahead.

We think the safest way to back this game is to take Mauritania or a draw. The price of 1.18 matches our reading of the contest. It gives us a short price but covers two outcomes, protecting us if the match ends level. Our chance of this selection being right sits at 83 per cent, which is comfortably high. For the bet to go wrong, Mauritania would have to be shut out and then lose, something that looks unlikely given their 81 per cent chance to score at all. Even if they only manage a single goal, the draw option still protects us. In short, the price looks good and the odds of a positive result are strong, making this a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact scoreline.