How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Namibia or Draw 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Namibia host Congo in an AFCON qualifier at home on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the table shows Namibia a touch ahead. The stakes are clear: a win puts Namibia in a stronger spot to chase qualification, while Congo needs a result to stay in the hunt. On paper Namibia are the better side – they are expected to score more and have a higher chance of finding the net at least once.
We back Namibia or a draw. The price of 1.34 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Namibia are expected to score at least once 78 % of the time and to hit two or more goals 42 % of the time, while Congo’s chances of scoring are lower at 59 % and only 21 % for more than one goal. Our overall confidence that this pick will work is 79 %. The price looks good for a sensible way to back the lean without having to pick an exact score. If Congo manages to keep a clean sheet and snatch a win, the pick would fail, but the odds of that happening are limited.
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