How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Netherlands or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The Netherlands host Germany in a UEFA Nations League clash on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit near the top of their group, each hoping to secure the three points that will keep them in contention for promotion. The Dutch sit one place above the Germans in the table, but the gap is tiny, and a win for either side will tighten the race. On paper the Netherlands are the stronger side, with an expected 2.2 goals compared with Germany’s 1.6. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, and both sides have a high probability of finding the net – 88 % for the Dutch and 80 % for the Germans.
The Netherlands have been busy lately. They beat Belgium 3-1, then drew 2-2 with Spain, and followed that with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal. Those three results give them a run of six goals scored and only three conceded. The recent flood of goals shows they can create and finish, while the defence has held up reasonably well. The pattern points to a side that is comfortable attacking and capable of keeping a clean sheet when needed.
Germany’s recent form tells a similar story. They started with a 2-0 win over Italy, then suffered a 1-3 loss to France, and most recently edged a 2-2 draw with England. The draw with England was a tense affair, with both teams trading blows before the final whistle. Germany managed to score twice and keep the opposition from pulling ahead, showing they can both attack and hold on under pressure. Overall they have scored five and let in five in the last three games, indicating a balanced but slightly leaky defence.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been tight and full of goals. The last encounter ended 2-2, a result that reflected the attacking intent of both teams and the willingness to push forward. Given the expected goal figures of 2.2 for the Dutch and 1.6 for the Germans, we anticipate a similar open contest. Both nations are likely to create several chances, and the probability of each side scoring at least once is high – 88 % for the Netherlands and 80 % for Germany. The match should feature a steady flow of attacks, with the Dutch perhaps edging the number of chances.
Our pick is Netherlands or Draw. The price of 1.45 is longer than what we see in the game, making it a sensible way to back the Dutch while still covering a stalemate. We think the Dutch have the edge, but a draw is a realistic outcome given Germany’s ability to score and keep the game close. We estimate a 72 % chance that this selection will be right. For it to go wrong, Germany would need to win outright, or the game would have to be a very low-scoring affair where the Netherlands fail to find the net at all. If either of those happens, the pick would not pay off.
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