Netherlands v Germany prediction

What to expect

The Netherlands host Germany in a UEFA Nations League clash on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to add points and improve their standing in the competition, but the exact table positions are not known. What we do know is that the numbers give the Dutch a slight edge. The expected goal tally is 2.2 for the Netherlands and 1.6 for Germany, a total of about 3.8 goals in the game. That suggests an open match with chances at both ends. The odds of the Dutch finding the net at all are high – 88 % – and they have a 63 % chance of scoring twice or more. Germany are also likely to hit the target, with an 80 % chance of scoring and a 47 % chance of getting two or more goals. In short, both sides should be able to create opportunities, and the result could swing either way.

Our reading of the match leans toward a safe bet on the Netherlands or a draw. The price on that option is 1.45, which is longer than we would have taken on a straight Dutch win. By covering the draw as well, we protect ourselves if the game ends level, while still backing the side that the numbers favour. The chance that this selection will be right sits at 72 % in our view, which is a comfortable level of confidence. The price looks good for the safety it offers, and it matches the expectation of a competitive, possibly high-scoring encounter.

For the pick to go wrong, a few things would need to happen. Germany would have to keep a clean sheet and either win or hold the Dutch to a single goal. That would require the Netherlands to struggle to convert the many chances they are likely to create, and for Germany to be unusually efficient in defence. If the game turns into a low-scoring affair, the draw part of the bet would still protect us, but a German win would break the selection. As long as the match stays open and both teams manage to find the net, the Netherlands or draw choice should stand up well.