What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Netherlands and 0.9 from Greece, so Netherlands come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Greece come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Netherlands to win. Netherlands are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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