What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Niger and 2.1 from Morocco, so Morocco come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Niger come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Morocco to win. Morocco shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.1), and we make them about 81% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.08, which works out at about 93 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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