How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Puerto Rico or Draw 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Puerto Rico host Guyana on 24 September 2026 in a CONCACAF Nations League clash. Both teams are looking to add points and improve their standing in the league, but the table details are not available to us. What we do know is that the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends. Puerto Rico are the stronger side on the statistical side, with an expected 2.0 goals compared with Guyana’s 1.6. The chance that Puerto Rico will find the net at all is high – 86 per cent – and there is a solid 58 per cent chance they will score twice or more. Guyana are also likely to hit the target, with an 81 per cent chance of scoring and a 49 per cent chance of getting two or more goals. In short, both teams should be willing to attack and we can expect a lively encounter.
Our pick is Puerto Rico or a draw. The price on offer is 1.49, which sits close to our own reading of the game. By backing Puerto Rico or the draw we are covering the two most likely outcomes while keeping the price short. The price looks good to us because it rewards the slight edge Puerto Rico have without demanding a precise scoreline. We estimate a 67 per cent chance that this selection will be right. For it to go wrong, Guyana would need to win outright, which would require them to out-score Puerto Rico despite being the underdog in the expectations. If the match turns into a low-scoring affair with Guyana scoring once and Puerto Rico failing to find the net, the draw part of our bet would still protect us, but a clean-sheet loss for Puerto Rico would be the only scenario that defeats the pick. Overall, the balance of probabilities and the price make Puerto Rico or draw a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
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