How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 7. We made Finland to win 87%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from San Marino and 2.6 from Finland, so Finland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Finland to win. Finland shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.6), and we make them about 88% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 87 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.10, which works out at about 91 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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