How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sierra Leone or Draw 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Sierra Leone host Zimbabwe in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit close together in the qualification table, each hoping to pull ahead and keep their chances of reaching the finals alive. A win for the home side would lift them a few places and give them a small cushion, while a victory for Zimbabwe would push them into the top half and keep the race tight. The two sides are almost evenly matched on paper, with the expected goal totals almost identical – 1.2 for Sierra Leone and 1.1 for Zimbabwe – suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
We back Sierra Leone or a draw. The price of 1.36 is shorter than what we think the game will deliver, giving us a safer bet without needing to pick the exact score. Both teams have a high chance of finding the net – 72 % for Sierra Leone and 68 % for Zimbabwe – and the odds of either side scoring twice are modest, 34 % and 29 % respectively. Our reading gives a 69 % chance that the result will be either a Sierra Leone win or a draw, which matches the price nicely. The bet will go wrong only if Zimbabwe wins outright, which would require them to out-score the hosts in a game that looks set to be close and cautious.
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