What to expect
Sierra Leone host Zimbabwe in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their groups, each looking to pull away from the pack and keep their qualification hopes alive. The points table is tight, and a win or even a point could make the difference between a comfortable finish and a scramble for the last spots. Statistically the two sides are almost neck-and-neck: Sierra Leone average 1.2 goals per game, Zimbabwe 1.1, and the total goal expectation sits at about 2.4 for the match. Both sides have a high chance of finding the net – 72 % for Sierra Leone and 68 % for Zimbabwe – and there is a decent likelihood of each scoring more than once, 34 % and 29 % respectively.
We think the safest way to back this game is to take Sierra Leone or a draw. The price of 1.32 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so it gives us a little extra safety. Our own view is that the chance of this outcome happening is about 69 %. For the pick to go wrong, Zimbabwe would need to win outright, which would require them to out-score the hosts despite the slightly lower scoring average. If the match stays tight and Sierra Leone manage at least a point, the pick should pay.
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