How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Slovakia to win 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Slovakia and 0.7 from Moldova, so Slovakia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Slovakia to win. Slovakia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 82% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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