What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Slovakia and 0.7 from Moldova, so Slovakia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Slovakia to win. Slovakia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 82% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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